I am not a political analyst nor am I here to analyze the result keeping in mind the technicalities like vote share percentage etc. I am just going to analyze the BJP lose as a layman and put forward my views on the same.
First of all I believe that the result portrays more of a Congress win than a BJP lose. Secondly, people somehow have voted against Third and Fourth Front considering them as an opportunistic group which is fighting against the Congress in respective states but finally, will get involved in horse trading. Hence, in that sense, first look on the election make us believe that it was somewhat intelligent voting on the part of voters. Thirdly, even in parliament elections there is no denying the fact that local factor work to a large extent and finally, BJP campaign this time was worse than the ‘India Shining’ one. This time they seem to lose plot somewhere in middle.
BJP Campaign:
- Repeated utterances of weak PM by PM in waiting. Yes, accepted Dr. Singh is weak who even after winning the election repeatedly thanks the leadership of Soniaji and Rahulji for the win but the way BJP took this particular concept of condemning the PM made BJP and Advani look arrogant, to say the least. Everyone knows he is weak but atleast have traits like clean, humble etc. which became more visible after these uncalled for attacks every next rally. Once or twice it was fine but somehow Advani’s speech writer/ advisors went over board for something that was important but not that important. It was something like ‘thotha chana baaje ghana’
- Leaving out the real issues like inflation, terrorism, corruption, some new policies etc. Their promises like increasing tax exemption limit etc. should be given more space and time. Though it is different thing that I have always found media emphasizing on BJP’s blunder but still a better campaign strategy should have been in place.
- Projection of Modi. I wonder if it had any effect, positive/ negative, on the voters
- Varun Gandhi factor. More or less if it worked, it worked only in UP to some extent. But yet BJP should understand that Hindus are moderate class of people in general and are not typically like some community which supports someone who publicly put price on a cartoonist head. Hindus are those who don’t want to increase their number by paying money and are more than willing to visit a mosque or church. So BJP should understand that most Hindus are very moderate even if their religion is questioned and they accordingly need to plan their strategies.
- Rahul Gandhi Factor. Though I hate the Congress and the family but yet this Gandhi is doing some good work. Like his parents or grandparents he is not jumping directly to grab the top post. He is not only working but working hard to make sure voter do not feel he is getting it in a platter. He looks like trying to work hard to earn the top post. And, I feel, if he continues like this, he will earn a lot of respect from the youth and urban/semi-urban India who mostly are pissed off due to family first attitude of Congress.
- Black Haired MPs. This is where BJP need to work hard to make sure youth are attracted towards them. I accept the fact that most of these dudes of Congress are there because of their dads who were killed/ died. (A conspiracy Theory by me putting serious question marks on the accidental deaths of Scindhia and Pilot) But they display a face which unfortunately people of India, especially the youth prefer to see - English speaking, little sophisticated, intelligent, charming etc. This is where BJP lacks big time and they need to search people who are like 20 years younger version of Jaitely, Chandan Mitra, Shourie et al, who can become a face of BJP.
State Wise
Rajasthan: I fail to understand why Mrs Sindhia was still treated so highly, even after the state election lose. Not only she was unpopular with the masses after the arrogance and princely ways of living she displayed while in power, but also her hold on party was not convincing. Without naming the source this is one statement, from a core BJP supporter, I would like to share is ‘Maharani rahengi to harenge ho sahi’. BJP need to understand now people are looking for leaders who are humble and not display arrogance, atleast publicly. Though I feel even if the leader was different, still BJP would have improved its tally by not more than 3-4 seats.
UP: Here I think the Gandhi factors worked
- Varun: in polarizing one community vote in favor of congress.
- Rahul: general vote base increase
I believe the votes which were mostly divided in SP and BSP got concentrated and went to Congress because of the speech. Now, I am not saying what he said was right or wrong but it probably had an effect on the final outcome. Secondly, work of other Gandhi scion helped increase the base for the grand Old Party.
Gujrat/ MP: It’s always hard to sweep but seems some local factors spoiled the party's chances and nothing more.
Other states where BJP didn’t perform well: I have no idea :)
What are their strengths
- Right ideology party: If you want, you can call me communal/ nationalist but I have been ruled by the outsiders for last 1000 years and I no more want to be ruled by foreigners or those who have got foreign blood in them. This is something if you speak in public people will brand you communal etc. but the fact is major middle class and a large percentage of decently educated people who generally do not vote because they are not in their home towns, according to me, feel like that. BJP should try to attract such population as much as possible.
- Conversions: I hate to see poor people being converted for money and I hate to see infiltrators’ being given legal status for votes. Someone can say atleast these poor are getting benefitted with money but then people should understand that indoctrinated people owing their loyalty to the outside world will finally lead to another Pakistan or Christistan or something like that. While in the first place, my highly controversial question is why the poor is poor? (Again another post can be written so I’ll just leave this for now). I know India gave the slogan of ‘Vasudev Kutumkam’ (world is one family) but the fact is no country follows this ideology and I alone cannot be idiot enough to accept and follow this. I strongly believe atleast in the Hindi belt a large population is like this who doesn’t want them to be ruled by pseudo-Christians but BJP need to trap such people to convert their votes. But yet BJP should understand that Hindus mostly are moderate and peace loving
- Non Appeasement: When you hear statements like Minorities have first right over country’s resources you obviously are worried till what depth will this appeasement and so- called Secularism brand of politics fall. Is being a Hindu a crime?
- Not that much of dynastic politics
- Respect India’s Past: Theories which have been discredited all over the world are still being taught in schools. BJP ideology is also based upon the fact that our past was great and this is something which I like as it tries to instill a feeling of self honour in Indian psyche.
Besides that there is quite less to separate these two, presently (Historically I hate congress). Both have similar foreign and economic policy. BJP likes to portray it stricter with internal affairs and will take no non-sense but still, I believe with present Indian situation both of them are equally limped in tackling the issue. (May be BJP is a little better, but yet...)
First of all I believe that the result portrays more of a Congress win than a BJP lose. Secondly, people somehow have voted against Third and Fourth Front considering them as an opportunistic group which is fighting against the Congress in respective states but finally, will get involved in horse trading. Hence, in that sense, first look on the election make us believe that it was somewhat intelligent voting on the part of voters. Thirdly, even in parliament elections there is no denying the fact that local factor work to a large extent and finally, BJP campaign this time was worse than the ‘India Shining’ one. This time they seem to lose plot somewhere in middle.
BJP Campaign:
- Repeated utterances of weak PM by PM in waiting. Yes, accepted Dr. Singh is weak who even after winning the election repeatedly thanks the leadership of Soniaji and Rahulji for the win but the way BJP took this particular concept of condemning the PM made BJP and Advani look arrogant, to say the least. Everyone knows he is weak but atleast have traits like clean, humble etc. which became more visible after these uncalled for attacks every next rally. Once or twice it was fine but somehow Advani’s speech writer/ advisors went over board for something that was important but not that important. It was something like ‘thotha chana baaje ghana’
- Leaving out the real issues like inflation, terrorism, corruption, some new policies etc. Their promises like increasing tax exemption limit etc. should be given more space and time. Though it is different thing that I have always found media emphasizing on BJP’s blunder but still a better campaign strategy should have been in place.
- Projection of Modi. I wonder if it had any effect, positive/ negative, on the voters
- Varun Gandhi factor. More or less if it worked, it worked only in UP to some extent. But yet BJP should understand that Hindus are moderate class of people in general and are not typically like some community which supports someone who publicly put price on a cartoonist head. Hindus are those who don’t want to increase their number by paying money and are more than willing to visit a mosque or church. So BJP should understand that most Hindus are very moderate even if their religion is questioned and they accordingly need to plan their strategies.
- Rahul Gandhi Factor. Though I hate the Congress and the family but yet this Gandhi is doing some good work. Like his parents or grandparents he is not jumping directly to grab the top post. He is not only working but working hard to make sure voter do not feel he is getting it in a platter. He looks like trying to work hard to earn the top post. And, I feel, if he continues like this, he will earn a lot of respect from the youth and urban/semi-urban India who mostly are pissed off due to family first attitude of Congress.
- Black Haired MPs. This is where BJP need to work hard to make sure youth are attracted towards them. I accept the fact that most of these dudes of Congress are there because of their dads who were killed/ died. (A conspiracy Theory by me putting serious question marks on the accidental deaths of Scindhia and Pilot) But they display a face which unfortunately people of India, especially the youth prefer to see - English speaking, little sophisticated, intelligent, charming etc. This is where BJP lacks big time and they need to search people who are like 20 years younger version of Jaitely, Chandan Mitra, Shourie et al, who can become a face of BJP.
State Wise
Rajasthan: I fail to understand why Mrs Sindhia was still treated so highly, even after the state election lose. Not only she was unpopular with the masses after the arrogance and princely ways of living she displayed while in power, but also her hold on party was not convincing. Without naming the source this is one statement, from a core BJP supporter, I would like to share is ‘Maharani rahengi to harenge ho sahi’. BJP need to understand now people are looking for leaders who are humble and not display arrogance, atleast publicly. Though I feel even if the leader was different, still BJP would have improved its tally by not more than 3-4 seats.
UP: Here I think the Gandhi factors worked
- Varun: in polarizing one community vote in favor of congress.
- Rahul: general vote base increase
I believe the votes which were mostly divided in SP and BSP got concentrated and went to Congress because of the speech. Now, I am not saying what he said was right or wrong but it probably had an effect on the final outcome. Secondly, work of other Gandhi scion helped increase the base for the grand Old Party.
Gujrat/ MP: It’s always hard to sweep but seems some local factors spoiled the party's chances and nothing more.
Other states where BJP didn’t perform well: I have no idea :)
What are their strengths
- Right ideology party: If you want, you can call me communal/ nationalist but I have been ruled by the outsiders for last 1000 years and I no more want to be ruled by foreigners or those who have got foreign blood in them. This is something if you speak in public people will brand you communal etc. but the fact is major middle class and a large percentage of decently educated people who generally do not vote because they are not in their home towns, according to me, feel like that. BJP should try to attract such population as much as possible.
- Conversions: I hate to see poor people being converted for money and I hate to see infiltrators’ being given legal status for votes. Someone can say atleast these poor are getting benefitted with money but then people should understand that indoctrinated people owing their loyalty to the outside world will finally lead to another Pakistan or Christistan or something like that. While in the first place, my highly controversial question is why the poor is poor? (Again another post can be written so I’ll just leave this for now). I know India gave the slogan of ‘Vasudev Kutumkam’ (world is one family) but the fact is no country follows this ideology and I alone cannot be idiot enough to accept and follow this. I strongly believe atleast in the Hindi belt a large population is like this who doesn’t want them to be ruled by pseudo-Christians but BJP need to trap such people to convert their votes. But yet BJP should understand that Hindus mostly are moderate and peace loving
- Non Appeasement: When you hear statements like Minorities have first right over country’s resources you obviously are worried till what depth will this appeasement and so- called Secularism brand of politics fall. Is being a Hindu a crime?
- Not that much of dynastic politics
- Respect India’s Past: Theories which have been discredited all over the world are still being taught in schools. BJP ideology is also based upon the fact that our past was great and this is something which I like as it tries to instill a feeling of self honour in Indian psyche.
Besides that there is quite less to separate these two, presently (Historically I hate congress). Both have similar foreign and economic policy. BJP likes to portray it stricter with internal affairs and will take no non-sense but still, I believe with present Indian situation both of them are equally limped in tackling the issue. (May be BJP is a little better, but yet...)
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