Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Where BJP went wrong?

I am not a political analyst nor am I here to analyze the result keeping in mind the technicalities like vote share percentage etc. I am just going to analyze the BJP lose as a layman and put forward my views on the same.
First of all I believe that the result portrays more of a Congress win than a BJP lose. Secondly, people somehow have voted against Third and Fourth Front considering them as an opportunistic group which is fighting against the Congress in respective states but finally, will get involved in horse trading. Hence, in that sense, first look on the election make us believe that it was somewhat intelligent voting on the part of voters. Thirdly, even in parliament elections there is no denying the fact that local factor work to a large extent and finally, BJP campaign this time was worse than the ‘India Shining’ one. This time they seem to lose plot somewhere in middle.
BJP Campaign:
- Repeated utterances of weak PM by PM in waiting. Yes, accepted Dr. Singh is weak who even after winning the election repeatedly thanks the leadership of Soniaji and Rahulji for the win but the way BJP took this particular concept of condemning the PM made BJP and Advani look arrogant, to say the least. Everyone knows he is weak but atleast have traits like clean, humble etc. which became more visible after these uncalled for attacks every next rally. Once or twice it was fine but somehow Advani’s speech writer/ advisors went over board for something that was important but not that important. It was something like ‘thotha chana baaje ghana’
- Leaving out the real issues like inflation, terrorism, corruption, some new policies etc. Their promises like increasing tax exemption limit etc. should be given more space and time. Though it is different thing that I have always found media emphasizing on BJP’s blunder but still a better campaign strategy should have been in place.
- Projection of Modi. I wonder if it had any effect, positive/ negative, on the voters
- Varun Gandhi factor. More or less if it worked, it worked only in UP to some extent. But yet BJP should understand that Hindus are moderate class of people in general and are not typically like some community which supports someone who publicly put price on a cartoonist head. Hindus are those who don’t want to increase their number by paying money and are more than willing to visit a mosque or church. So BJP should understand that most Hindus are very moderate even if their religion is questioned and they accordingly need to plan their strategies.
- Rahul Gandhi Factor. Though I hate the Congress and the family but yet this Gandhi is doing some good work. Like his parents or grandparents he is not jumping directly to grab the top post. He is not only working but working hard to make sure voter do not feel he is getting it in a platter. He looks like trying to work hard to earn the top post. And, I feel, if he continues like this, he will earn a lot of respect from the youth and urban/semi-urban India who mostly are pissed off due to family first attitude of Congress.
- Black Haired MPs. This is where BJP need to work hard to make sure youth are attracted towards them. I accept the fact that most of these dudes of Congress are there because of their dads who were killed/ died. (A conspiracy Theory by me putting serious question marks on the accidental deaths of Scindhia and Pilot) But they display a face which unfortunately people of India, especially the youth prefer to see - English speaking, little sophisticated, intelligent, charming etc. This is where BJP lacks big time and they need to search people who are like 20 years younger version of Jaitely, Chandan Mitra, Shourie et al, who can become a face of BJP.

State Wise

Rajasthan: I fail to understand why Mrs Sindhia was still treated so highly, even after the state election lose. Not only she was unpopular with the masses after the arrogance and princely ways of living she displayed while in power, but also her hold on party was not convincing. Without naming the source this is one statement, from a core BJP supporter, I would like to share is ‘Maharani rahengi to harenge ho sahi’. BJP need to understand now people are looking for leaders who are humble and not display arrogance, atleast publicly. Though I feel even if the leader was different, still BJP would have improved its tally by not more than 3-4 seats.

UP: Here I think the Gandhi factors worked
- Varun: in polarizing one community vote in favor of congress.
- Rahul: general vote base increase
I believe the votes which were mostly divided in SP and BSP got concentrated and went to Congress because of the speech. Now, I am not saying what he said was right or wrong but it probably had an effect on the final outcome. Secondly, work of other Gandhi scion helped increase the base for the grand Old Party.

Gujrat/ MP: It’s always hard to sweep but seems some local factors spoiled the party's chances and nothing more.

Other states where BJP didn’t perform well: I have no idea :)

What are their strengths
- Right ideology party: If you want, you can call me communal/ nationalist but I have been ruled by the outsiders for last 1000 years and I no more want to be ruled by foreigners or those who have got foreign blood in them. This is something if you speak in public people will brand you communal etc. but the fact is major middle class and a large percentage of decently educated people who generally do not vote because they are not in their home towns, according to me, feel like that. BJP should try to attract such population as much as possible.
- Conversions: I hate to see poor people being converted for money and I hate to see infiltrators’ being given legal status for votes. Someone can say atleast these poor are getting benefitted with money but then people should understand that indoctrinated people owing their loyalty to the outside world will finally lead to another Pakistan or Christistan or something like that. While in the first place, my highly controversial question is why the poor is poor? (Again another post can be written so I’ll just leave this for now). I know India gave the slogan of ‘Vasudev Kutumkam’ (world is one family) but the fact is no country follows this ideology and I alone cannot be idiot enough to accept and follow this. I strongly believe atleast in the Hindi belt a large population is like this who doesn’t want them to be ruled by pseudo-Christians but BJP need to trap such people to convert their votes. But yet BJP should understand that Hindus mostly are moderate and peace loving
- Non Appeasement: When you hear statements like Minorities have first right over country’s resources you obviously are worried till what depth will this appeasement and so- called Secularism brand of politics fall. Is being a Hindu a crime?
- Not that much of dynastic politics
- Respect India’s Past: Theories which have been discredited all over the world are still being taught in schools. BJP ideology is also based upon the fact that our past was great and this is something which I like as it tries to instill a feeling of self honour in Indian psyche.

Besides that there is quite less to separate these two, presently (Historically I hate congress). Both have similar foreign and economic policy. BJP likes to portray it stricter with internal affairs and will take no non-sense but still, I believe with present Indian situation both of them are equally limped in tackling the issue. (May be BJP is a little better, but yet...)

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Why is it hard to accept congress?

An election which could have gone either ways definitely went the way I didn’t want it go. I wished the exit polls to go wrong but in the other direction. Though I know whichever party comes to power, it won’t be affecting general public life to a large extent and only people who will be benefitting will be the ministers in the government who will be making money for their generations to come. Still, accepting congress in its present form due to reasons like historical blunders, one family rule, sycophancy, etc. is atleast not possible for me.

With the kind of support congress had before independence, it is hard to believe they took more than forty years to get us independent. One might argue the methods used then were the only possibilities and it is easy to condemn the past sitting in the lap of the present, but yet a leadership which was more foreign than Indian in their thoughts and was more than happy of having Dominican status was not the best bet for India. Even the leaders like S. C. Bose who also captured the imagination of masses weren’t supported by M.K. Gandhi for the reasons well documented and ultimately have to move away from the Congress. With all due respects to the work done by the leaders and people then, there is no denying the fact that if it was not for the World War II, the party could have fought for next hundred years for the Indian independence but couldn’t have achieved anything. A well documented reason that it became harder economically for the British to sustain a colony after WWII is never even talked of at school level. Indian Navy revolt, another major reason which made British to leave India, is never taught in school history to keep the credit of Independence always with the Congress. It is an accepted fact that the history is the mistress of the victorious but the way the past governments have indoctrinated Indian public of their glorious past is something unacceptable. India has been ruled by the outsiders for last 1000 years and the majority population, whether you want to accept it or not, was treated badly during those times. But blatantly and selectively wiping off the history in the name of maintaining communal peace was not a way forward. Having said that, there is no doubt that people followed them due to charismatic nature of these leaders and ultimately it is the public that decides who leads them at the end of day, hence the blame totally lies with us, the people of India.

Ruling a country for around fifty years at a stretch and still having a large portion of population which thrives on reservations, a large percentage being illiterate, a lot of area no better than a place in underdeveloped country makes me think if the ruling party (or the family) never really worked on making things works the way they should have been. Some classical examples given are that of China and Japan, which were almost at the same level as was India at the time of independence. No doubt, they are the countries with different models but yet, if their model worked why couldn’t the Indian model work. Did the party have some vested interest in keeping people the way they were is something to ponder about?

Democracy, as per many commentators, is the best form of rule tried and tested till now. But seeing the democracies around the world makes me wonder if it’s just an exercise where people vindicate their trust in the hereditary rule. Again there is no denying the fact that it is the people of a country who are electing these scions but has it to do something with the mentality of people or is it just a human nature to go and trust the people of a particular family to lead them. Congress keeps falling back on one family to revive their fortunes because they know that people of this country will support the family. People whose leadership credentials are no better than mine just jump into the fray and may become the ruler one day just because of his/ her family name. Was it possible if large population in the country was educated is something I always wonder?
A party which since long has supported corruption, appeased people in name of secularism, or backed sycophants is the last thing India needed at this stage.